As the global order becomes increasingly fragmented, Gulf states are navigating a fluid and uncertain geopolitical landscape. The War in Ukraine and the intensifying U.S.–China rivalry has complicated their traditional strategy of balancing between major powers. While these states have historically shown agility in engaging Washington, Moscow, and Beijing, shifting U.S. priorities and growing security and economic entanglements are narrowing the space for balancing acts. At the same time, national transformation agendas such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, Qatar’s Vision 2030, and the UAE’s Centennial 2071 set out bold goals for economic diversification and sociopolitical modernisation. Yet progress across the region remains uneven, hindered by internal structural constraints and global economic volatility. These challenges are further compounded by unresolved intra-Gulf tensions—most notably the lingering aftershocks of the Qatar crisis—which continue to cast doubt on the prospects for genuine regional cohesion and a unified Gulf response to a rapidly evolving multipolar world.
This session will assess how Gulf states are recalibrating their foreign policy amid global power shifts. It will examine whether their balancing act between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing remains viable, and evaluate the ambitions and constraints of national transformation agendas. Panelists will also debate the extent to which intra-Gulf divisions persist beneath the surface of diplomatic normalisation, and explore the region’s potential to assert strategic agency in a realigning world order.
Discussion Themes:
- How is the Gulf’s long-standing strategy of balancing relations between the global powers being challenged in today’s fragmenting global order?
- To what extent have national transformation agendas delivered tangible progress, and what structural or external constraints continue to hinder implementation?
- What role can the Gulf states realistically aspire to play in a multipolar world shaped by strategic rivalry, economic realignment, and shifting global alliances?
- Have intra-Gulf tensions truly been resolved in a lasting manner, or have they merely been temporarily deferred and suppressed?