European strategic autonomy has long been discussed as an aspiration, but today it increasingly appears as a stress test of Europe’s political will, institutional coherence, and strategic imagination. The war in Ukraine, the return of great-power rivalry, energy insecurity, pressure on NATO’s eastern flank, and the uncertainty surrounding long-term American security guarantees have exposed a hard reality: Europe’s ambitions have grown faster than its capacity to act. The problem is not only insufficient defence spending. It is also the result of decades of post-Cold War complacency, fragmented decision-making within the EU, uneven threat perceptions among member states, and a persistent gap between strategic rhetoric and operational capability.
This session will move beyond familiar calls for “more Europe” in defence and ask what strategic autonomy would actually require in practice. Can Europe build credible military, industrial, energy, and diplomatic capacity without duplicating NATO or deepening internal divisions? Can it act strategically when its member states do not always share the same threat perceptions or geopolitical priorities? The discussion will also address a crucial but often underexamined dimension: Türkiye’s role in Europe’s security future. As a major NATO ally outside the EU, a regional military power, an energy corridor, a migration actor, and a mediator in conflicts surrounding Europe, Türkiye sits at the intersection of many of the challenges Europe seeks to manage. If Europe is serious about strategic autonomy, it must also confront the question of whether a secure European order can be built while treating Türkiye as peripheral.
Discussion Themes:
- Has Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy become more urgent because of today’s geopolitical shocks, or has it already fallen behind the pace of global change?
- What are the main structural obstacles preventing Europe from turning strategic autonomy from a policy slogan into real military, industrial, energy, and diplomatic capacity?
- How does uncertainty over the future of American security guarantees, particularly under the second Trump administration, reshape Europe’s strategic choices, and can Europe develop greater autonomy without weakening NATO?
- In which areas is deeper EU–Türkiye strategic cooperation essential for European security, and can Europe achieve strategic autonomy while treating key non-EU actors such as Türkiye as peripheral?